NOAA, others predict above average hurricane season

Evacuations are now easier to and from Lafayette
July 11, 2018
The Name Game
July 11, 2018
Evacuations are now easier to and from Lafayette
July 11, 2018
The Name Game
July 11, 2018

B


e careful with vacation plans – especially in August and September. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) thinks the 2018 hurricane season is going to be active with storms that are likely to make landfall in the United States.

NOAA released their 2018 hurricane center predictions many moons ago, calling for an above-average season with a 70 percent chance that we will see 10-16 named storms with 5-9 of those becoming hurricanes and 1-4 becoming major hurricanes. Over history, the average hurricane season has 12 named storms with 6 hurricanes and 3 major storms.


NOAA’s forecast looks pretty good right now considering that we already had one named storm – Tropical Storm Alberto – before the hurricane season even began.

NOAA says there’s a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season this summer – a small figure because of computer models, steering currents and other factors, which show that the tropics could be ripe for development.

Last year, there were 17 named storms, but 10 became hurricanes and six were major storms. In NOAA’s pre-season forecast last year, they called for 13-17 storms with 5-9 hurricanes – an accurate depiction of how the season went. 


“With the advances made in hardware and computing over the course of the last year, the ability of NOAA scientists to both predict the path of storms and warn Americans who may find themselves in harm’s way is unprecedented,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross.

“The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts.”

There are many factors which go into the prediction of an above-average season. 


The first is always steering patterns, which determine whether or not there will be wind shear over the waters of the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. In NOAA’s forecast, they say that there’s a small chance of an El Niño developing, but it’s going to be weak, which should feed development. In strong El Niño years, there is increased wind shear across the Atlantic Basin which literally pulls apart storms at the seams and doesn’t allow them to develop. Without that in place, there is a far greater chance at development – especially in the peak times in the season, which begins  in mid-August and which lasts through September. 

But aside from steering currents, water is also the fuel which storms use to gather steam and a scan around the globe shows that temperatures are already approaching levels favorable for development.

The Gulf of Mexico already has temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s and off the coast of Africa and into the Caribbean, waters are currently cooler, but are expected to rise in the coming months.


In NOAA’s forecast, it says that sea-surface temperatures right now are “near-average”, while adding that “average” means that hurricanes are capable of developing.

In its release, NOAA boasted that the accuracy of its forecasts has grown in recent years because of investments in technology, which make long-term forecasting more accurate. Using the tools that NOAA has accumulated has leaders accurate that the findings for 2018 will be pinpoint accurate, as well.

“NOAA’s observational and modeling enhancements for the 2018 season put us on the path to deliver the world’s best regional and global weather models,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D, assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction. “These upgrades are key to improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts, allowing NOAA to deliver the best science and service to the nation.”


NOAA updates its predictions in early August to prepare Americans for the peak of hurricane season.

OTHER ENTITIES AGREE

NOAA is just one trusted resource when it comes to long-term storm predictions.


Colorado State University is one of the world leaders in forecasting. They predict 14 named storms this season with seven hurricanes and three major storms. 

The Weather Company is another. They think the season will be slightly less active. They predict 12 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

North Carolina State researchers lean with NOAA and think there will be 14-18 named storms with 7-11 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes.


In debate and discussion in each forecast released is El Niño and how weak or strong the feature will develop. In some forecasts, experts believe El Niño will develop heavily when the seasons change from summer to autumn. 

Some forecasts with lighter numbers make note of El Niño’s presence and say that if it does develop, the hurricane season could practically be over by October because there will be too much wind shear over the Caribbean to support the formation of a major storm.

Hurricane season


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