Disturbance yet to develop into tropical cyclone, but still has a ‘high chance’ to

Heavy rain, tropical-storm-force winds continue to spread across the the region as Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 approaches
June 18, 2021
Tropical Storm Claudette forms, moves inland
June 19, 2021
Heavy rain, tropical-storm-force winds continue to spread across the the region as Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 approaches
June 18, 2021
Tropical Storm Claudette forms, moves inland
June 19, 2021

According to the 10 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three has not yet developed into a tropical cyclone.


From NHC:

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 90.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later tonight, with a turn toward the east-northeast expected by Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should moved inland over Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions of the
Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is still a high chance the system will become a tropical or subtropical storm through Saturday morning while the center is over or near water. The system is expected to begin weakening Saturday afternoon as it moves farther inland.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. Several oil rigs of off the coast of southeastern Louisiana have recently reported sustained
winds of 40-45 mph (65-70 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6-12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

AINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and
renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy
rain will expand across the interior Southeast and western
Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and
isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible.


STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL…2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay…2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL…1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay…1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA…1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay…1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in
the warning area through Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday across
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia.