Experts release updated hurricane season forecast, increasing number of named and major storms

Colorado State University released its updated Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Tuesday, July 9. The forecast has increased to 25 named storms with 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.

“We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”

In June, CSU forecasted 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. At the time, these were the highest hurricane numbers ever forecast by the group.

The full forecast can be read here: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-07.pdf