Hurricane Delta still a major storm as it approaches the Yucatan

The 4:00 a.m. advisory on Hurricane Delta has some changes with short term intensity, but not much change in the long term. Delta currently remains a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph as it approaches the Yucatan. The arrival of the storm in Louisiana has moved to early Friday afternoon, so a bit sooner than forecast yesterday. Projected landfall in south Louisiana is now between Abbeville and Morgan City. However, the cone of uncertainty stretches from Slidell, LA to Beaumont, TX.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by satellite images and Cuban radar data near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 86.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is likely Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next week.

Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.