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June 18, 2013
U.S. domestic crude oil production is projected to increase annually through 2019, when it will reach 7.5 million barrels per day, and the country’s reliance on imported energy will decline to 9 percent of its consumption in 2040, according to a report released Friday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
In the Annual Energy Outlook 2013, which looks forward to 2040, authors contend continued development of shale plays and still-advancing extraction methods will increase crude production by 234,000 bpd per year until 2019.
Increased domestic production, aided by increasing efficiency policies adopted for vehicles, will be responsible for cutting the import-to-consumption share, which was 29 percent in 2007 and 19 percent in 2011.
“EIA’s updated Reference case shows how evolving consumer preferences, improved technology and economic changes are pushing the nation toward more domestic energy production, greater vehicle efficiency, greater use of clean energy and reduced energy imports,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a printed statement. “This combination has markedly reduced projected energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.”
The release comes as conservatives criticize President Barack Obama for threatening to restrain development by eliminating long-standing tax incentives and failing to open more Outer Continental Shelf areas for development.
Meanwhile, liberals say the president is not doing enough to regulate what they say are environmentally harmful techniques to extract natural gas from shale plays and are urging him to take more steps toward curbing man-made global warming.
The Brent spot crude oil price is projected to drop to $96 per barrel in 2015 before beginning to rise on the way to $163 per barrel in 2040 to satisfy developing economies in Brazil, China, India and elsewhere. The price was $111 per barrel in 2011, and all prices are based on the dollar’s value that year.
U.S.-produced liquefied natural gas exports are anticipated to rise to 1.6 trillion cubic feet in 2027, double the amount projected in last year’s outlook. The United States is on pace to be a net exporter of LNG by 2016.
Renewable fuel use is expected to grow at a faster rate than fossil fuel use, the outlook says. Electricity generated by renewables will grow from 13 percent in 2011 to 16 percent in 2040 as the costs of solar and wind energy generation decline.
Biofuels are not expected to capture a substantial share of the liquid fuels market. The EIA projects advanced biofuel use will total 4.9 quadrillion Btu in 2040, an increase from 2.9 quadrillion Btu in 2011.
In addition to less use in vehicles, energy use per capita is projected to fall 15 percent from 2011 through 2040, attributable to improving efficiency standards and the fundamental ways it is utilized, the report states.
Still, overall energy use will continue to rise. The report states it will increase from 98 quadrillion Btu in 2011 to 108 quadrillion Btu in 2040.
Domestic oil production is expected to gradually decline after 2020 until it reaches 6.1 million bpd in 2040 “as producers develop sweet spots first and then move to less productive or less profitable drilling areas,” according to the report.
An oil rig works in offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Domestic oil production is on the rise throughout the state. The rise is expected to continue for the next few years, according to an EIA report.
