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April 1, 2015
Despite headline-making snowstorms and a current swell in the upper Mississippi River, forecasters say no significant local flooding is expected.
Jeffrey Graschel, a hydrologist at the National Weather Service’s River Forecast Center in Slidell, said that while there is a noticeable swell moving down the Mississippi, that river and the Atchafalaya River are forecast to be relatively tame, barring unforeseen future developments.
On Monday Vicksburg was near crest, but there were no flooding concerns.
“It is not going to go up very much higher and it looks like it will start dropping,” said NOAA hydrologist Dave Schlotzhauer.
He reported that a swell in the vicinity of Cairo, Ill., the week before, had moved downriver as expected, and reached Greenville, Ms by Monday.
“What we are projecting is constant seasonal flooding along the Mississippi and the Atchafalaya during late winter and early spring,” Graschel said. “A pretty good crest is coming down on the Mississippi, but it will be a few weeks before we get peak water on the lower part of the Mississippi or the lower part of the Atchafalaya.”
The Atchafalaya at Morgan City was to have reached crest state –six feet – by this week, forecasters said.
“That is pretty normal for this time of year,” Graschel added.
While the northeast experienced record or near-record snowfalls this year, Graschel said, the snow melts have not significantly affected bodies of water that feed the rivers with the greatest local impact to the Bayou Region.
“That snow falls into the Atlantic and doesn’t get into the Ohio River,” Graschel said. “With no more snowfall and warm temperatures, we have melted all the snow. The upper part of the Mississippi didn’t have much snow at all this year, and what there was will not play any role in future flooding.”
The Mississippi River at Baton Rouge and the Atchafalaya at Morgan City will have what Graschel referred to as “minor flood conditions.”
“Later parts of March and April could get additional rainfall. That could change things a little. But right now it’s nothing more than seasonal rises,” Graschel said. “We will have to stay tuned.”
Reggie Dupre, director of the Terrebonne Conservation and Levee District, said he is not worried about flooding at this point.
“There could be problems if there were a lot of rain, but so far we are not seeing that,” Dupre said, adding that a floodgate at Bayou Chenes near the Atchafalaya River and temporary levees added to the mix of flood protection at Gibson should easily handle any unforeseen water problems currently.
