Models and meteorologists: Expect Dorian to stall

Hurricane Dorian could be a catastrophic storm for the Florida peninsula.

The storm remains well-behavied so far, based on forecast guidance on Thursday night.

In the 4 p.m. National Hurricane Center advisory, the storm was located at 22.5 N and 67.7 W. Maximum sustained winds with Dorian are at 85 mph.

The forecast track for the next 48 hours remains the same.

The storm is expected to continue to move northwest at a brisk rate before taking more of a west-northwest turn into the peninsula of Florida. At landfall, Dorian is expected to be a low-end Category 4 storm.

That’s where it then gets dicey, and potentially dangerous for Florida.

Over the weekend and into early next week, steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico will break down, and computer models now say Dorian will move very little from Monday to Tuesday – some models showing the storm sitting virtually idle for 24 hours either just off the coast of Florida or just slightly onshore. That stalling pattern could bring 20+ inches of rain and dangerous surge and rains into Florida.

As we approach midweek next week, model runs still keep Dorian curving off to the north and east up the eastern shore, though the timing of that forecasted stalling pattern and the location of the storm when it makes a Florida landfall are key.

Fox 8 Chief Meteorologist David Bernard said it’s hard to predict what a storm will do when it’s not moving.

“For that reason, we can’t say we’re out of the woods just yet,” Bernard said. “A lot remains to be seen.”

A new forecast track will be released at 10 p.m. If there are changes, The Times will update.