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We continue to keep an eye on the large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche associated with a broad low pressure area. The overall system has become somewhat better organized since yesterday. The system has a 50 percent chance at developing into a depression over the next five days.


A tropical depression could form late in the week while the system begins to move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days.

New to the forecast is a non-tropical area of low pressure that has formed about 150 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northeastward for the next few days near the warm Gulf Stream, which could allow for some tropical development to occur while it moves away from the United States. The low should be over cold waters south of Nova Scotia by midweek, ending its development
chances. Its formation chance through five days is 20 percent.