TD 8 forecast to become Tropical Storm Hanna overnight; TS Gonzalo may strengthen to hurricane but then weaken

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This afternoon’s updates both seem to call for strengthening of the systems. Tropical Depression 8 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Hanna overnight. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is forecast to strengthen to hurricane force, then weaken after he moves into the Caribbean Sea.

 

From the National Hurricane Center: 


 

TD 8

At 4 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located over the Gulf of Mexico about 385 miles (620 km) east-southeast of Port O’Conner, Texas. It’s moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for portions of the Watch area later today.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected take place during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. When that occurs, it will be named Hanna.

 

The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast of the United States from Louisiana to south Texas, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding.

 

Swells generated by the tropical cyclone are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

At 5 p.m. AST, the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located over the Atlantic Ocean about 810 miles (1305 km) east of the southern Windward Islands. It’s moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening.


 

A Hurricane Watch continues for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Tobago and Grenada. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the respective watch areas on Saturday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gonzalo is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. Some strengthening is forecast to occur during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea.

 

Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

 

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. AST with an intermediate advisory at 8 p.m. AST.

 

Tropical Wave

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is expected to move westward across the tropical Atlantic for the next several days. Some development of this system is possible when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic early next week. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.