Tropical Wave Has 80 Percent Chance of Formation Next Week
October 4, 2020
Former Gov. Mike Foster has died
October 4, 2020
The first track for Potential Tropical Cyclone 26 has been released. It is expected to become Delta and eventually a 100 mph Cat 2 hurricane in the Gulf. We know by now it’s too early to focus on the exact cone.
NHC is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six. At 5 p.m. EDT, the disturbance was centered over the central Caribbean Sea about 90 miles (145 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 350 miles (565 km) east-southeast of Grand Cayman. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is expected to pass near or just southwest of Jamaica tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected to occur during the next 2 to 3 days and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba. The next name on the list is “Delta”.
A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. EDT with an intermediate advisory at 8 p.m. EDT – www.hurricanes.gov
