There’s been an upgrade on chance of development for the tropical disturbance located across northern Cuba.
According to the National Weather Service in New Orleans, the tropical disturbance now has a 40 percent (medium) chance of development in the next 5 days and a 30 percent (low) chance chance of development in the next 2 days.
The tropical disturbance located along the northern coast of Cuba is expected to continue west-northwest, emerging into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today. This system will continue moving to the west-northwest Wednesday through Friday, delivering an increase in rain and storm chances across the area.
At this time, it is likely that bands of scattered rain and storms will increase across the area Wednesday, lasting into Thursday and possibly Friday. While the bulk of the heaviest rain appears to be along southeastern LA coastline/adjacent marine areas, any change in forecast track and/or strength may deviate where the heaviest rain will be.
Winds will potentially become breezy starting Wednesday, lasting into Thursday with gusts 15-25mph possible across inland southeastern LA and coastal MS. Higher gusts in any stronger storm/rain bands 35 to 45 mph possible. Locally heavy rainfall possible in any heavier bands of showers and storms at any point on Wednesday and Thursday. Dangerous lightning is possible. Higher than normal tides could produce some coastal flooding along coastal southeastern LA and southern MS.