Last night at this time, the National Hurricane Center forecasted Tropical Storm Barry to be a hurricane with 85 mph winds at landfall.
Now, meteorologists say the storm will struggle to become a hurricane at all and will likely remain a tropical storm.
Last night, the National Hurricane Center said Barry would have maximum sustained winds of 65 mph by Thursday night at 10 p.m.
Well, Thursday night at 10 p.m. is here and the storm is lopsided, disorganized and holding on for dear life in the Gulf with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour.
What changed? Where did the forecasts go wrong?
It was all in the atmosphere.
Dry air pumped into the upper quadrant of Barry throughout the day and has blown the storm apart every time it made an effort to become better organized.
Satellite imagery of the storm show a tropic mess with most of the thunderstorms well to the west of the center and also a mass of storms about 80-90 miles south of Barry's eye.
"Dry air saved the day for us today," Fox 8 Chief Meteorologist David Bernard said on an evening broadcast. "That's really been Barry's worst enemy so far."
The dry air was unexpected. Early computer models called for Barry to strengthen because there was supposed to be minimal shearing in the Gulf throughout the week.
But today, shear in the northern Gulf was higher than initially expected and it pulled apart Barry's attempts at intensification.
Can it change?
Sure. If that dry air pattern gets cut off tomorrow, Gulf waters are plenty warm enough to sustain development.
But for at least one day, Barry's attempts to get stronger were thwarted by an unexpected hero of the day - some dry air north of the storm pouring off Mississippi's beaches.
THE LATEST COORDINATES
At 10 p.m. the National Hurricane Center issued its new advisory for Barry.
It's at 27.9 North, 89.4 West. The storm is moving west at 3 mph.
The track has not changed. Landfall is expected to be between Morgan City and New Iberia on Saturday morning, though the cone of error extends as far east as Lafourche Parish and as far west as extreme Western Louisiana.