Week 9 Prep Roundup
November 4, 2015
Complex discounts barely meet demand
November 4, 2015
This weekend marks the end of the 2015 prep football regular season.
When doing a little math and crunching some power rating numbers, it looks like the Houma-Thibodaux area will see as few as five and possibly as many as seven teams in the playoffs.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, Thibodaux, South Lafourche, Vandebilt Catholic, E.D. White and Covenant Christian are virtual locks to compete in the playoffs, which begin two Fridays from now throughout Louisiana.
Depending on the results in Week 10, Central Lafourche and H.L. Bourgeois may join the party, as well – each on the bubble in Class 5A.
Coaches said it’s the most exciting time of the year – a time when every, single play matters.
There will be several high-stakes games with big-time postseason implications throughout the area on Friday night.
“Every game is a big game when you get into Week 9, Week 10 and those final regular season games,” Central Lafourche coach Keith Menard said. “For us, we have some work to do to get in. For us, it’s like the playoffs have already started because we know that it’s win or go home.”
“I think when you get to the home stretch, it’s always fun because everyone is excited getting into the playoffs and seeing where you’ll be in the bracket and everything that goes with it,” Thibodaux coach Chris Dugas added. “We’re fortunate to have some key wins and to have some points piled up in our favor. But it’s definitely a fun time of the year to be a part of Louisiana High School football.”
CLASS 5A
Thibodaux is going to be in the playoffs – there’s no doubt about it.
The only drama the Tigers will face is whether or not they’ll host a first-round game. Thibodaux is 6-3 on the season, but owns a lot of power rating points based on a brutally tough schedule.
The Louisiana playoff formula is complicated. It factors in an average of how many games a team has won plus the number of games that all of your opponents have won, as well.
The Tigers sit at or just below No. 10 in the Week 9 projections. With a win against 6-win Hahnville on Friday, they will be a lock to host in the Round of 32.
Dugas said he’s well aware of that and will use it as a talking point to motivate his team.
“We want to have the chance to turn on the stadium lights in round one,” Dugas said. “We know a win Friday night gives us a great chance at that.”
For Central Lafourche and H.L. Bourgeois, being at home in the opening round of the playoffs is possible, too – even if in a different way.
Both have a chance to be home meaning that neither is a lock to make the field.
The Trojans can almost certainly punch a ticket if they beat East St. John on Friday. The Trojans enter the final week sitting right around the No. 32-seed in the Week 9 power rating projections.
The Braves have no guarantees. It looks like they’ll need to beat Terrebonne and get some help. H.L. Bourgeois is just outside of the Top 32 in the Week 9 numbers, and beating a two-win opponent in Week 10 won’t do a ton to move the needle.
Menard said the postseason is now for his team, adding that another win to reach the field would be “huge” for his program.
“It means an extra week of practice. It means an extra game, and it means a chance to take your team into a wild atmosphere and environment,” Menard said. “All three of those things are invaluable.”
H.L. Bourgeois fans need to root against Central Lafourche, Covington, East Ascension, West Jefferson, Sam Houston and Pineville in Week 10 – all teams who sit right around the same spot in the rankings as the Braves.
H.L. Bourgeois also benefits if South Terrebonne, Ellender, South Plaquemines or Westgate win in Week 10, because those are the opponents the Braves faced in non-district play.
CLASS 4A/Division II
There is not nearly as much drama locally regarding Class 4A and Division II.
In Class 4A, South Lafourche is all-but in the playoffs, thanks to a 5-4 record and a 3-1 mark in district play. Had the Tarpons beaten Assumption on Friday night, South Lafourche would have had an outside shot to host a first-round game.
But with that opportunity lost, it looks like the Tarpons will now seed somewhere in the mid-20s if they beat South Terrebonne on Friday night or the high-20s if they get beaten.
Being seeded somewhere from 24-26 would be interesting for the Tarpons, because it would make a rematch of Friday night’s 36-31 thriller with Assumption very possible. The Mustangs are likely to be seeded somewhere in the 6-10 range, assuming they beat Morgan City on Friday night – a game in which Assumption is heavily favored to win.
“We told our kids that we need to just keep pushing, and that’s exactly what we expect that we’re going to do,” South Lafourche coach Dennis Skains said. “This senior group has been so good about moving forward and continuing to fight. We know that they’re going to keep giving us everything that they’ve got.”
In Division II (which encompasses private schools with Class 3A and Class 4A enrollment sizes), both E.D. White and Vandebilt are automatically in.
That’s a lock, because all Division II teams automatically reach the postseason because of that classification’s small numbers.
E.D. White is 6-3 and the Terriers are 3-6.
DIVISION IV
In Division IV (which encompasses private schools with Class 1A enrollment sizes), Covenant Christian Academy is in – no matter what the rankings say.
The Lions won the District 8-1A Championship on Friday night in a dominant victory over Houma Christian. With that win, CCA scores an automatic bid into the playoffs – a bid that was huge for the Lions’ postseason hopes.
Just 16 teams make the Division IV Playoffs and the Lions have hovered below the No. 16 mark throughout the season.
If outside of the Top 16 when the season ends, CCA will automatically take the No. 16-seed and face No. 1 in the first round of the playoffs.
