Breaking down contenders, pretenders in field of 65

There aren’t very many things that make me excited, but March Madness makes me downright giddy.

Like little kid in a candy story giddy.

As a child, it was amazing how things always seemed to work out in my favor. I was lucky enough to always have either a sore throat or a bellyache on the first Thursday and Friday of the Big Dance. An illness just severe enough to keep me from the grinds of school for those two days, but not quite pressing enough to stop me from sitting in front of the TV with a Dominos box in one hand and my bracket in the other.

But you know what? This year actually might be the peak of my excitement, because the Tournament field is absolutely wide open and there are legitimately close to a dozen teams I can see cutting down the nets in early April. (It seems sort of silly that March Madness ends in April, but that’s another argument for another day.)

But as always, the Case-meister is here to help you out as you are filling out those last-minute brackets.

Here is my list of contenders and pretenders this year and a few tools you can use to win bragging rights among your peers in your office pool.

The Contenders:

Kansas: I am not usually on board the Jayhawks’ bandwagon, but there is no team in America more talented this season. From Sherron Collins to Xavier Henry to Cole Aldrich, Kansas is in prime shape to cut down the nets again this year.

Michigan State: The Spartans were a minor disappointment this season, after coming into the year with super-huge expectations. Michigan State started the year ranked No. 2 and have fallen to No. 11 at press time, causing some to forget about last season’s national runners-up. But there is no better single elimination coach than Tom Izzo, so be prepared to see another March run for these guys.

Kentucky: What a turnaround it’s been for the Wildcats this year. With a new coach has come a new mentality, and the Wildcats are definitely a strong favorite to make waves this March. If they can overcome their youth, they can add to their allure and win another national title.

Pretenders:

Syracuse: I like the Orange and I think they have a very talented roster. But I put them down as a pretender for one reason – defense. Syracuse plays exclusively a zone defense. For the amateur basketball fan, that means they pack the middle of the floor and leave the 3-point areas unguarded. So in not so many words, if a team gets hot from the arc, anyone can beat Syracuse, as evident by the waxing they took at the hands of Louisville a few weekends ago. I can see the Cuse making a nice run, but I don’t see them winning six in a row and cutting down the nets.

Gonzaga: It used to be a neat little trick to jot down the Zags all the way to the Elite 8 or so, because they had such a nice run in the late 1990s and early 2000s. But the Zags have struggled in their transition from underdog to favorite and have been knocked out in the first round two of the past three seasons. Expect much of the same, and look for the Zags to bow out pretty early.

Purdue: This one is painful for the casual college basketball fan, because the Boilermakers were a legitimate threat 22 days ago. But that was before they lost their star player Robbie Hummel to a season-ending ACL injury. The team leaked oil down the stretch of the season without Hummel and I see much of the same for these guys in the Big Dance.

Bracket Tips:

Now that we’ve got the contenders and pretenders out of the way, here are a few more tips when it comes to putting the final ink on your brackets.

Look for 12-seeds to beat 5-seeds: A 12-seed team has beaten a 5-seed in the first round in eight of the past 10 NCAA Tournaments. So that’s an 80 percent chance at success. The question then becomes picking the right underdog. If you believe in karma, go with the 12-seed in the East Region, because they have won seven of their past 10 first round matchups, including last year when No. 12 Wisconsin upset No. 5 Florida State. It’s just a thought.

Don’t pick all four No. 1 seeds to go to the Final Four: I know it’s easy to pencil in the team with the little No. 1 next to their names, but don’t do it. Only once since the Big Dance expanded to 64 teams in 1985 have all of the top seeds gone to the Final Four. And this year, among all other years, avoid that like the plague, because the field is so wide open that anyone can beat anyone else on any given day.

Terrible two’s in Round of 32: In every year of the past decade except last year, a No. 2 seed was eliminated in the second round of the tournament. That’s nine out of 10 years. So seek out a No. 7 or No. 10 seed that you like, roll the dice and put them going to the Sweet 16, because it will most likely happen again somewhere this season.

Good luck to everyone and may your bracket have better outcomes than mine probably will.