Midseason MLB report card: Checking Casey’s preseason picks

I believe in a firm system of checks and balances.

That, and I’m not afraid to say it, I downright enjoy tooting my own horn when I’m right.

So with those two things in mind, I decided to dig into the archives this week and uncover my preseason MLB column, which detailed my predictions for the 2011 season.

Baseball started the second half of its season this week, so I figured this could serve as a bit of a progress report to see how I did back on March 30 when I stuck my neck on the line and made 13 bold predictions for the upcoming season, something that isn’t easy to do for a sport that plays a 162 game season.

See, I told you I like to toot my own horn.

The results are varied and I nailed some and I also swung and missed badly on others.

But anyway, I’ll roll out the good with the bad and let you be the judge.

Here’s my official midseason baseball predictions progress report.

1. On March 30, Casey said: “The Cubs will not win the World Series.”

Grade: A-

Comments: I would give myself an A+ here if the topic weren’t so easy. Of course, the Cubs won’t win the World Series. England has a better chance of retaking America than the Cubs do of winning the World Series. Pigs will not only fly, but will grow fangs before the Cubs win the World Series. Nonetheless, with a 37-55 first half record, I did nail this one and “we’ll get ’em next year,” is in full effect in Chicago.

2. On March 30, Casey said: “Rays will lack sting in 2011.”

Grade: B

Comments: I said the Rays would win 80 games at best. They will exceed that barring a second half collapse. But my basic point was accurate, they aren’t as good as the Red Sox, nor the Yankees and will miss the playoffs by a wide margin. You just can’t lose the players they did and be the same team with a $4.50 payroll.

3. On March 30, Casey said: “Pujols ready for best season of career.”

Grade: D+

Comments: I sure seemed to put the hex on Mr. Pujols, didn’t I? Since my prediction, he’s been injured, struggled at the plate and has been overtaken by Lance Berkman as the dominant hitter in his own team’s lineup. Granted, even in a “bad” first half, he still had 18 home runs, but this year will not sniff his numbers of previous seasons, which is what I predicted.

4. On March 30, Casey said: “The Giants won’t win 92 games this year.”

Grade: C

Comments: The Giants went into the All-Star break with a 52-40 record. Doing the math would show that they are on pace to win right in the ballpark of 90-95 games. So while technically I could still be right if the Giants slump, this one truly will come down to the wire and for that, I cannot in good conscience give myself a high mark.

5. On March 30, Casey said: “The Phillies will be great, but not the best ever.”

Grade: B+

Comments: The Phillies are just what I predicted them to be, very, very good. But some people said they’d beat the 2001 Mariners’ 116-46 record. That was just stupid logic. The Phillies will win 98-102 games and will go into the playoffs with the best record in baseball. But they don’t have anywhere near the best team ever. They are in a fight as it is to be the best team in their division.

6. On March 30, Casey said: “The Royals will be bad, but will show signs of improvement.”

Grade: D

Comment: There’s not much I can say to defend myself, the Royals are just flat out awful. They started the season 20-20 and had me optimistic about my prediction. But in true Royals fashion, they closed the first half with a 17-34 mark to clinch that they will remain the only American League team that has not made the playoffs in my lifetime.

7. On March 30, Casey said: “CC Sabathia will opt out of contract following the season.”

Grade: A

Comment: My logic behind saying this was that Sabathia would have such a dominant season that he’d be foolish to stay in his current contract because he’d be more valuable on the open market. Posting a 13-4 record with a 2.72 ERA in the first half of the season proves this to be the case. He can easily earn $40-50 million more if he opts out of his deal and forces the Yankees to resign him.

8. On March 30, Casey said: “The Mets will be a mess.”

Grade: B

Comment: The Mets are broke and will not make the playoffs. They will also lose their best player to free agency. But I don’t earn an “A” grade, because I truly thought they’d be a 90-loss team when in actuality, they are playing .500 baseball so far this year. I emphasize the words “so far.”

9. On March 30, Casey said: “Baby Braves will shine.”

Grade: A

Comment: The Braves might well have the two best rookies in baseball with slugger Freddie Freeman and closer Craig Kimbrel. Add in some Tommy Hanson (24), a pinch of Jonny Venters (26) and a smidgen of Jair Jurrjens (25) and you have the best young team in baseball and a sure bet to clinch a spot in postseason play.

10. On March 30, Casey said: “Jose Bautista won’t sniff 50 home runs.”

Grade: F

Comment: I shot down all of Bautista’s accomplishments as a fluke, saying he was a one-hit wonder who would come back down to earth. Wrong. Bautista is the modern day Barry Bonds and he will flirt with 60 dingers at his current pace, that is if teams keep pitching to him.

11. On March 30, Casey said: “White Sox will win AL Central.”

Grade: C-

Comment: They sit five games out of first at the All-Star break and still do have a shot to make a run at the division title. But when I made this pick, I expected Adam Dunn to have a pulse, Jake Peavy to not have a glass elbow and Gordon Beckham to get more than two hits a week. My pick here isn’t looking too good.

12. On March 30, Casey said: “There will be four no-hitters, no perfect games.”

Grade: A

Comment: This is the most impossible thing in the world to predict, but I said there would be four no-hitters and at the midway point of the season and there were two. Cha-ching. From that, I said Justin Verlander would be one of the pitchers to throw one. He was. Double cha-ching.

13. On March 30, Casey said: “Phillies win the National League, Red Sox win the American League and Red Sox win the World Series.”

Grade: B+

Comment: I see nothing to make me change my predictions. These teams have the two best records in baseball and appear on a showdown for the Fall Classic. The Phillies beat the Sox in a regular season interleague series, but that just means they’re less likely to repeat such a performance a second time. I still take the Sox in 6 over the Phillies with Adrian Gonzales as the World Series MVP.

So there you have it. I nailed a few, I bombed a few and some others are still too early to tell.

Now if only I can get a strong second half from the Royals, Albert Pujols and Adam Dunn, I’ll be happy.

I love to toot my own horn.

I don’t know if I’ve mentioned that yet.