Computer model guidance is tightening on Tropical Storm Dorian’s future.
The storm is spinning in the Caribbean right now and it will do so throughout the next 24-48 hours.
Dorian had maximum-sustained winds of 50 mph, as of Tuesday morning, but the storm is expected to strengthen slightly, though the National Hurricane Center now shies away from making it a hurricane in its newest 5-day guidance.
Computer models are starting to agree on Dorian’s future. They move the storm in a west-northwest motion for the next day or so before taking the storm on a more northwesterly path on Thursday and Friday. Guidance takes the storm into east-central Florida on Sunday morning, though the cone of error extends from the Florida Keys to Georgia and the Carolinas.
If (big if this far out) Dorian follows model guidance and the center line track, impacts for Louisiana will likely be minimal (if any).
But if the storm follows the more southern rim of the cone, it could interact far less with land and have a clearer path to head toward Louisiana early next week.
Stay tuned for further updates.