Ida stays strong as it passes Cuba

At 8 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Ida was located inland over western Cuba about 90 miles (145) southwest of Havana. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf

coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will remain over western Cuba for another hour or two, and then move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico later

tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) has recently been reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

– Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…10-15 ft

– Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft

– Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…6-9 ft

– Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL state line…4-7 ft

– Lake Pontchartrain…4-7 ft

– Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft

– Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…3-5 ft

– MS/AL state line to AL/FL state line including Mobile Bay…2-4 ft

Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA…2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts.

The next advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 p.m. CT.