Increasing odds for tropical development in the Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico

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For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Franklin, located to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands.


1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
A trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Recently received satellite wind data suggests that the system has lost organization from yesterday, but a tropical depression or storm could still form as it moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. By this weekend, the system is expected to merge with a frontal boundary north of the Gulf Stream. For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.


2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the northern Lesser Antilles. While environmental conditions are marginal for additional development, they could become more conducive in a few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.


3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure centered over Central America is forecast to move into northwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter into early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward, entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.