Rebounding slowly

Louisiana will add 96,000 jobs over the next two years but the state will still remain far below its pre-Hurricane Katrina employment level as a whole, according to a group of state economists.

The annual Louisiana Economic Outlook report said the state will add 53,000 jobs in 2007 and 42,000 jobs in 2008 for growth rates of 3- and 2.3-percent. The state will only reach its 1998 non-farm employment level with 78,600 fewer jobs that before the storm solely because of the huge Katrina-related job losses in the New Orleans metropolitan area.

Loren Scott, professor emeritus of economics at Louisiana State University, said the economy may bode well for some regions in the state.

After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes saw a huge influx of evacuees, around 62,810 people. Because of inadequate housing, the majority of evacuees left and around 4,401 stayed, according to Scott’s economic report.

There was an initial increase in employment to meet the regions new demands. As the evacuees started trickling out the employment levels still remained high. According to the LEO report, the employment levels remained high for two main reasons. First, there was a new demand for oil prompting exploration companies and shipyards to increase their output. Second, the region is home to a lot of companies that benefited from the repair work done on the offshore energy infrastructure.

“We are estimating that the Houma area will continue on its recent growth track and add 3,600 jobs over the next two years,” Scott said. “That’s an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent.”

According to the LEO report, expansions in both Bollinger and Edison Chouest Shipyards, and the $202 million construction contract for the overpass crossing Bayou Lafourche will play major roles in continuing this growth.

In the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Baton Rouge received a huge influx of about 248,000 evacuees. The LEO report now estimates that the population has been reduced but is still much higher than the pre-hurricane population.

After gaining 20,800 jobs after Hurricane Katrina, the Baton Rouge region will add 7,600 jobs in 2007 and another 7,400 in 2008. This is primarily due to the demand for more housing, office, retail space and spending, the LEO Report said.

The LEO report also forecasts that the New Orleans area will have a slow recovery in the next two years.

Under the Road Home program, homeowners can receive up to $150,000 to either rebuild their homes, relocate to another part of the state or have the state buy them out entirely. Scott said factors that could affect New Orleans include fears of more flooding, the possibility of skyrocketing power rates and the rising violent crime rate.

“Repopulation in New Orleans will not speed up, but slow down. We think that a significant number will decide not to return,” Scott said. “And those who do will have major problems getting their houses repaired.”

“The good news is there is no recession on the horizon…” Scott said “…at least through 2008.”

Jared Bailey can be reached at (985) 876-3008 or jared@tri-parishtimes.com.

Rebounding slowly