Population drop could be costly for Tri-parish residents

In its first update on population estimates since the hurricanes of 2005, the U.S. Census Bureau reported recently that the state of Louisiana lost almost five percent of its population between July 2005 and July 2006.

The bureau estimates that the state lost some 220,000 of its 4.5 million residents, the largest drop in population for a state in a one-year period since World War II.

The drop in population puts the state in danger of losing one of its seven U.S. House seats in Congress.

A state’s population determines how many seats it is awarded. For many years, Louisiana had eight seats, however dwindling population in the 1980s n caused in part by the oil bust n cost Louisiana a seat during reapportionment following the 1990 census.

The state may find itself in a similar position following the 2010 census unless those who fled Louisiana in the wake of 2005 storms Katrina and Rita return in larger numbers.

But that’s a move the remains in question for many of those who suffered damage.

Demographers point to an inadequate housing stock and higher housing costs as major impediments to more people returning to the state. Add to that list rising insurance costs, the slow-moving Road Home program, and a shortage of contractors to help rebuild.

Some analysts have determined that it is too early to make a call on the possible loss of a congressional seat while others, such as Shreveport demographer Elliott Stonecipher, have noted that the state is well on its way to losing another seat in Congress.

In published reports, Stonecipher has acknowledged that “you lose a congressional seat by standing still” and Louisiana has lost population in the decade thus far.

Local officials concur with his assessment.

“Unless something drastic happens, we may be down to six seats in 2012,” said state Sen. Reggie Dupre (D-Bourg.)

Dupre noted that the congressional map will be redrawn in 2011, after the 2010 Census is complete. “The population still has time to recover, but it better get moving.”

The state senator speculated that a redrawn Third Congressional District would likely expand westward to take in the Lafayette area. Such a move would be bad news for the Lafourche and Terrebonne region because the area would likely see diminished clout as a result of being included with a larger metro area.

State Rep. Loulan Pitre Jr. (R-Cut Off) agreed with Dupre’s prediction. “The population loss is really an expected result of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the state could likely lose a seat in Congress as a result of the population swing,” he said.

Although the 2005 hurricane season did little to improve Louisiana’s numbers, the shrinking population didn’t start that year.

Long before the storms washed ashore, statistics indicated the state was in a slump and that Louisiana’s population growth was the lowest in the South, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Between 2000 and 2005, the state’s population only grew by a little over one percent, far below the nation’s five percent average over the same period. According to the census bureau, neighboring states n Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia n all saw population increases over the same time frame.

Florida’s population jumped a whopping 10 percent over the five-year period from 2000 to 2005, the bureau’s report noted.

Doug Cheramie can be reached at doug@tri-parishtimes.com.