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Still waiting on Fred…. This morning’s report shows we are still looking at Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. The disturbance is still forecast to become a Tropical Storm today. The current map shows the storm weakening to a depression as it crosses over land, then regaining strength to a tropical storm is it approaches the US coastline near Florida.
From the National Hurricane Center:
At 5 a.m. AST, the disturbance was centered over the Caribbean Sea about 60 miles (110 km) southwest of Guadeloupe and about 330 miles (535 km) east-southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico. It’s moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. When that occurs, it will be named “Fred”. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday.
Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
