Tropical Storm Nicholas to bring heavy rains to our area

At 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located over the western Gulf of Mexico about 45 miles (70 km) northeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River and about 140 miles (225 km) south of Port O’Connor, Texas. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore of the coast of south Texas this morning and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas late this afternoon or this evening.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). Strengthening is forecast to occur today, and Nicholas could reach the northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

– Port O’Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay…3-5 ft

– San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay…2-4 ft

– Baffin Bay to Port O’Connor, TX…2-4 ft

– Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay…2-4 ft

– Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay…1-3 ft

– Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…1-3 ft

– Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake…1-3 ft

Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX. Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding..

Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.