Waiting game begins as flooding anticipated for region

It is no longer a matter of if. It is an issue of when. Friday evening the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers posted a formal warning to residents of Terrebonne, St. Mary, St. Martin, St. Landry, Pointe Coupee, Lafourche, Iberia and Iberville parishes that the intended opening of the Morganza spillway, possibly today, would produce widespread flooding throughout the Atchafalaya River region.

The Atchafalaya is an offshoot of the Mississippi River. A controlled 50 percent release of swollen waters from upstream that have been quickly approaching the Morganza spillway is expected to crest at 44 feet in Baton Rouge and arrive in St. Mary and Terrebonne parishes on May 23.

Making use of the Atchafalaya to relieve pressure on dam structures could prevent what Corps of Engineers officials contend would be an even more catastrophic flooding disaster than what is now projected for swamps, farmland and towns along of the fingers of waterways that were once a natural flow of the Mississippi River.

“Based off the National Weather Service predictions at this point, there is going to be a lot of water coming down that spillway even if we don’t operate the Morganza structure,” said Corps Col. Edward Fleming during a multi-parish meeting Thursday in Patterson. “When we make the decision [to open the spillway] … we are going to open it based on the flow of the river.”

Fleming said that the Mississippi River is maintained at a flow of 1.5 million cubic feet per second, with lowland waterways generally running at 1.25 million cubic feet per second. He suggested it would not be long before those levels are exceeded.

On Sunday, the National Weather Service said that Mississippi River levels in New Orleans could reach 19.5 feet, only 6 inches from topping floodwalls. Additionally, the flow rate of the river could be at 1.9 million cubic feet per second.

During the weekend, officials predicted between 10 and 12 feet of flooding in Morgan City, and 5 feet in Terrebonne Parish, including Houma, and the western portions of Lafourche Parish, including Raceland, Lockport and Larose, once floodwaters reach the Tri-parish region.

According to Terrebonne Parish President Michel Claudet, the greatest areas of risk in his parish include Gibson, Donner, Chacahoula and Bayou Black.

“Basically, the news is now, even at the best, we are going to be 1 foot lower in Morgan City than we were in the 1973 floods,” Claudet said. “At worst, we will be 2 feet higher.”

Longtime residents contend that during the 1973 flood there was 5 feet of water standing in downtown Houma.

“The problem is it could potentially stay at that level for a couple of weeks,” Claudet said. Fleming went one step farther and said floodwaters could remain standing well into July.

“We do have a problem with the water,” said St. Mary Parish President Paul Naquin, who oversaw the Patterson meeting where the repeated theme was to expect a return to 1973 flood conditions.

The 1973 flood resulted in approximately $117 million in damages for the areas now anticipating a repeat event. It was the second most damaging flood for Louisiana after the great flood of 1927, which was at the time called the most catastrophic event since the Civil War and saw waters standing for nearly one year.

The irony, some locals point out, is that the 1927 flood was partly caused by attempts to reroute the Mississippi River, which was followed by the building of additional levees that may have ultimately played a part in the flood of 1973. The difference between those two events and what is expected during the next week is that those occasions were met with days of heavy rain. On Monday the National Weather Service said there was a slight chance of showers for Friday.

According to a statement released by the Corps of Engineers, floodwaters progressing along the Atchafalaya could reach anywhere between 5 feet and 25 feet above ground elevation.

The Terrebonne Parish Council on Thursday approved the transfer of $1 million from a dedicated emergency contingency fund to a specific allocated fund for flood protection efforts. Specific plans on how to use the money have not been finalized.

Also on Thursday, St. Mary Parish officials announced plans to sink a barge possibly in the Intracoastal Waterway or Bayou Chene.

It is an idea Naquin said would help protect Morgan City and Amelia. It is also a concept Terrebonne officials said could cause increased flooding in Gibson and western portions of their parish, depending on where specifically a barge would be placed.

Members of the Terrebonne Parish delegation suggested that St. Mary Parish was asking Terrebonne to sacrifice itself for the sake of its neighbor to the west.

“If we put [a barge] in the [Intracoastal Waterway] it will affect Terrebonne,” Naquin said. “I’m not asking Terrebonne to sacrifice anything. We want to work with Terrebonne. We don’t want to work against anybody. I think we need it in the Chene right now. This is a big project. If we don’t do it right, it is going to affect many people.”

“The devil is in the details,” said Terrebonne Parish Manager Al Levron following the Patterson meeting, regarding where a barge could be placed to slow flood waters and who it might impact most. “This is the first that I heard of a location that may not prevent backwater flooding in Terrebonne. Over the next week, there is going to be discussion among all the stakeholders.”

“We hope this condition is not as bad as 1973,” said resident Daniel Wilson of Morgan City. “But we are in better shape now and have more things in place [to fight flood damage] than in 1973. But it is always a concern because we don’t know what Mother Nature is going to do.”

“This is the best news I’ve heard if you can get it done,” said resident Larry Doiron of Oak Harbor of the barge sinking concept.

An actual flooding event can vary from one model to another according to Fleming, who admitted there are still a lot of questions.

Officials have not speculated on the extent of damage or property loss to be expected, and stopped short of admitting that with increased populations and developed land a massive flood could be more costly than what was experienced 38 years ago.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened the Bonnet Carre spillway on Monday. The only certainty at this time, state and local officials agree, is opening the Morganza Spillway is most likely next.

Water pours from the Mississippi River into the Bonnet Carre Spillway, after workers opened the spillway’s wooden barriers, which serve as a dam against the high water in Norco, La., Monday, in anticipation of rising floodwater. GERALD HEBERT

Gerald Herbert