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Expectations are high for the New Orleans Saints in 2018 — for the first time in a while.
People are excited after last year’s awesome run where the team broke its streak of three-straight 7-win seasons and pushed into the playoffs. Quarterback Drew Brees will set all-time NFL records this season and the hype surrounding those records falling has everyone locally excited. National media agree. They are labeling the team as the “sexy” pick to win the NFC Championship this fall and maybe even the Super Bowl.
But for all of the good news, I’m afraid that I’ve got some bad news. Forgive me as I step up to the podium now as the voice of reason.
The Saints are good, yes. Their progress is wonderful, no doubt.
But the NFC is a murderer’s row of titans and I’m here to let you guys know that the Saints very well could get swallowed up in the arms race.
Look, I love everything that New Orleans has done in the past 12-18 months to overhaul its roster. To deny that progress has been made would be just downright stupid.
Getting Marston Lattimore was a game changer for New Orleans. He has given validity and stability to a secondary group that was one of the worst in NFL history before his arrival. The guy is a bonafide superstar and will be a Pro Bowler for 10 years — if not more.
The same can be said for halfback Alvin Kamara. Look, Kamara is a wizard in New Orleans’ backfield. He’s so good that we’re dedicating an entire story in his guide to his prowess.
Oh, and, of course, there’s Drew Brees. What
But for all of the positive things that we can say about the Saints, we have to also talk about the reality of the situation.
The Saints were good in 2017, but they were lucky, too.
Unlucky at the end, sure.
But they were incredibly lucky throughout the season to get where they got.
Let’s look back.
The team started 0-2 and looked putrid. They then got their first wins against a Panthers team without Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen both, then against a Dolphins’ team that was a mess.
Out of the bye week, New Orleans faced Green Bay on the road … the week AFTER Aaron Rodgers got hurt.
A few weeks later, they were behind the 8-ball against Washington and the Redskins did every, single thing imaginable to lose that game, which kept the momentum rolling forward.
On Christmas Eve, the Saints hosted Atlanta and Santa passed early for New Orleans.
He wore referee’s stripes.
Atlanta had 10 penalties in that game, compared to just three for New Orleans. There were several questionable calls in that game that didn’t go Atlanta’s way — mostly centered around the team’s coverage scheme against Julio Jones.
In the playoffs, New Orleans could have faced anyone. But instead, they got to face a Carolina team that they absolutely own … at home.
They won and went to Minnesota where they fell behind big and were on the verge of being blown out.
But the Vikings played a putrid second half and blew their entire lead, before taking it back with a miracle.
Do I need to go on?
I’m not denying that the Saints are among the contenders in the NFC. I am not meaning to take anything away from the magical ride that the team enjoyed last year.
I’m just merely pointing out that in the NFL, the difference between 12-4 and 8-8 is razor thin and the ball has to bounce your way several times for a team to have the magical season they want to enjoy.
Last year, those bounces went New Orleans’ way.
But what’s to say they won’t go the opposite way this year?
The Saints are good, sure.
But they’re not decisively better than the Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Lions, Rams, Falcons or Panthers.
The NFC is like the Wild, Wild West. Whoever wins will be the marksman who dodges the most bullets on the ride.
Some of that is skill, sure.
But a lot is luck. And the Saints will need a combination of both to make it back to the NFC Divisional Playoffs this fall.
Follow Casey on Twitter for more.
https://twitter.com/casey_gisclair
