Election Day results prompt concerns

The presidential election produced neither a disputable tie nor a landslide separation expected by different political camps of both Democrat and Republican persuasions.

With Saturday’s final results from Florida announced, President Obama added numbers to his already claimed re-election, and posted 332 total electoral votes compared to 206 secured by Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Obama’s popular vote margin was sealed with approximately 2.6 million of the estimated more than 114 million ballots cast.

At the same time, raw numbers held Obama having secured 50.6 percent of the popular vote nationally. Romney finished the race with 47.9 percent of ballot support. The remaining 1.5 percent was split among selections cast for alternative party candidates and voters who left the presidential race blank.

During the 2008 election between Obama and John McCain, more than 131 million voters offered an all-time Election Day participation record. Obama won the Electoral College that year 365 to 163.

In the presidential race of 2004, ballots totaled an excess of 121 million votes with George W. Bush claiming re-election against challenger John Kerry on an Electoral College split of 286 to 251.

The battle of 2000 saw more than 100 million voters in a nearly even split between Bush and Al Gore. While Gore gained the popular vote by a little more than 547,000 ballots, Bush secured the electoral vote 271 to 266.

“Going into Election Day [2012], the whole perception was turned on its head,” political analyst and pollster Elliott Stonecipher said. Government junkies noted this year as being more in line with the 2004 race where Bush gained re-election by a little more than 3 million votes.

In Louisiana, the presidential race votes went for Romney by a 17 percent margin, although Democrats outnumber Republicans by 613,268 registrants. Voters documented as being in other parties or Independents total 718,157 according to the Louisiana Secretary of State. This still reflected 97,612 more registered Democrats than other political persuasions.

Voters crossed party lines as expected by analysts. Still, election watchers noted numbers that made 2012 unique from previous election years.

“There are some real notable mysteries in this,” Stonecipher said on Saturday. “Not only from the standpoint of expectations, but from the standpoint of Republicans losing among their own voters and Independents, and the Democrat turnout being far more durable [in] 2012 from 2008.”

Numbers Game

Crossover votes are nothing new. Margins of error are always considered when polls are taken. Yet, final figures provided by the Louisiana Secretary of State’s office help illustrate questions and trends common across America.

The numbers, Stonecipher said, should be taken into consideration as both political parties decide who they truly represent and the nation as a whole marks changes with its identity for the future.

Louisiana listed 2,962,999 registered voters going into last Tuesday. However, ballots counted by Wednesday morning totaled 2,965,753. The 2,754 difference could not be explained by the Secretary of State’s office, which was closed Monday in observance of Veteran’s Day.

Regarding voter turnout, Louisiana carried Romney with 58 percent of the vote compared to 41 percent for Obama. Among those numbers 48.2 percent of actual voters were identified as Democrat, 27.5 percent Republican, and 24.3 percent as other.

“On the national analysis, the expectation of Republican turnout was incredibly inflated compared to what happened,” Stonecipher said.

In the Tri-parish region, Louisiana and the rest of the nation, a closer look at who the voting public is may offer explanations to the results. Analysts contend it also sends a message of what the future holds.

When it came to Lafourche Parish, 73 percent (28,333 ballots) went for Romney and 25 percent (9,543 votes) went to Obama. The strong favor for a challenger carried over into Terrebonne Parish where 70 percent (29,500 voters) cast ballots for Romney and 29 percent (12,071 ballots) went to Obama. That margin was narrowed in St. Mary Parish where 59 percent (13,883 votes) went for Romney, while Obama carried 40 percent (9,448 votes) as a balance.

Louisiana’s electorate was divided as 64.4 being white, 31.0 percent black, and 4.6 percent as mixed or other races. Female voters outnumbered male voters 54.7 percent to 45.2 percent. The secretary of State listed an additional 0.1 percent (826 registered voters) as of unknown gender.

In Lafourche Parish those casting ballots were identified as 51 percent Democrat, 24.4 percent Republican and 24.6 percent as other party or independent voters. Lafourche Parish voters were listed as being 84 percent white, 12.6 percent black and 3.4 percent mixed or other races. Women accounted for 53.8 percent of voters while men made the balance with 46.2 percent as their numbers.

St. Mary Parish voters were listed as 50.6 percent Democrat, 23.9 percent Republican and 25.5 percent other party and independent. Racial makeup was 62.3 percent white, 33.4 percent black and 4.3 percent mixed or other races. Women comprised the majority of voters with a count representing 54.1 percent of participants and men were at a level of 45.9 percent.

Terrebonne Parish voters were comprised of 40.4 percent Democrats, 30.4 percent Republicans and 29.2 percent independent or alternative parities. White voters totaled 75.1 percent of the ballot casting population, while 18.2 percent were black and 6.7 percent were registered as mixed or other races. Female votes carried strong influence with 54 percent representation compared to 46 percent for men.

Unhidden Meaning

Stonecipher said if the election tells the voting public anything, it is that they might not be who they thought they have been.

What was expected to be a strong turnout among registered voters – 67 percent in Louisiana – was actually, according to the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, lower than the two previous presidential elections. The highest state turnout was 74.6 percent in Minnesota, and the lowest was in Hawaii at 43.6 percent. Only Louisiana and Iowa posted increases in voter participation compared to the election of 2008.

The CSAE listed 93 million eligible voters as not having cast ballots for the 2012 presidential election, marking a national average turnout of 57.5 percent. This stands in comparison to a 62.3 percent turnout in 2008 and 60.4 percent of registered voters casting ballots in 2004. In 2000, the turnout rate was 54.2 percent.

Louisiana Secretary of State Tom Schedler responded with pride to Louisiana’s participation level. “I am pleased that so many citizens made an effort to vote,” he said.

Stonecipher said Louisiana is being viewed as a testing ground where the voting public and both major parties are finding their identities to be different than what was traditional for them.

“If you stay away from social issues, evangelicals and the Tea Party members [both of which lean Republican] stay home,” Stonecipher said. “So, where does that leave the Republican Party?”

As for Democrats, the political analyst said they, in opposition to their traditional blue-collar roots, are the ones backed by big money. “I think it is about Wall Street,” he said. “The fact of the matter is they are more comfortable when they think the economic malaise means they are insulated because the Democrats are in charge. You would have thought they would go the other way.”

Women are making their numbers known in terms of election results. Stonecipher said voter turnout was primarily among single women whether with children or not.

“All of that leaves us with a realization that 2008 was not an aberration,” Stonecipher said. “You have two elections in a row now that we have seen women and minorities as the influence. That is a big deal. [They basically] were saying, ‘Let’s give Obama a redo.’”

Analysts agree that political parties tend to repair or remake themselves less often than the mistakes the other party commits that simply makes the first party appear to have fixed itself. Stonecipher said it is a mistake for Republicans, Democrats and the voting public to leave so much to chance.

“Republicans can rebuild or they can wait for the Democrats to screwup,” Stonecipher said. “If the Democrats screw up it is going to look like they got there a lot faster. The Republican Party, however, has got to find a bridge from its traditional demography to include women, young people and minorities. And they have got to do it without the evangelicals and Tea Party staying home.”

Stonecipher said the United States has moved into a pre-socialist era with neither major political party adequately addressing that issue. “The problem is too few people realize we are doing it,” he said. “That argument was made this election cycle as loudly as it has ever been made. That’s the scary part.”